BISMARCK, N.D. ( U.S. Rep. Kelly Armstrong has overwhelming support in his bid for North Dakota governor, while the U.S. House race remains too close to call, according to a new statewide poll released today by the North Dakota News Cooperative (NDNC).

“I do not expect the governor’s race to be an issue for Armstrong, as something wild would have to happen in the next couple of weeks for him to lose,” said Dr. Trevor Smith, chief research officer with WPA Intelligence. This Washington D.C.-based firm conducted the poll for NDNC.

In the May 20-22 poll with 500 likely Republican primary voters, Armstrong leads Lt. Gov. Tammy Miller with 57% of the vote. Miller received 19% support, while 24% of respondents remain undecided. Armstrong’s 38-point lead suggests a secure position, even if Miller captures all undecided votes.

Armstrong, a Dickinson native, has strong backing among staunch Republicans, with 66% supporting him compared to Miller’s 16%. He leads among both very conservative voters and moderates, and holds a 10-point advantage with independents, securing 38% of their support. Geographically, Armstrong’s support is stronger in western North Dakota, boasting a 43-point lead over Miller, compared to a 31-point lead in the eastern part of the state.

The winner of the Republican primary will advance to face Democrat Merrill Piepkorn and independent candidate Michael Coachman in the general election.

The U.S. House race, however, presents a more competitive landscape. North Dakota Public Service Commissioner Julie Fedorchak leads with 32% support, giving her a 7-point advantage over former State Rep. Rick Becker of Bismarck, who has 25%. Yet, with 28% of voters undecided, the race remains open.

Five Republican candidates are vying for the House seat. Besides Fedorchak and Becker, Bismarck attorney and former Miss America Cara Mund has 10% support, military veteran Alex Balazs of Cando holds 5%, and Sharlet Mohr of Williston is below 1%.

Fedorchak’s support is strong among those identifying as strong Republicans (36%) and somewhat conservative (36%), whereas Becker leads among very conservative voters with 34%. Independents show more support for Becker (32%) over Fedorchak (23%), with Mund performing better among independents (17%) and moderates (22%).

Geographically, Becker has a slight edge in western North Dakota, securing 28% compared to Fedorchak’s 26%, while Fedorchak leads significantly in the east with 39%, an 18-point advantage over Becker.

The poll has a margin of error of ±4.4%, and the U.S. House primary winner will face the Democratic candidate in the general election, where Trygve Hammer and Roland Riemers are competing for the Democratic nomination.