This month’s 2022/23 U.S. corn outlook is for larger supplies and higher
ending stocks. Corn beginning stocks are raised 25 million bushels, based on reduced feed and residual use for 2021/22 as indicated in the June 30 Grain Stocks report. Corn production for 2022/23 is forecast 45 million bushels higher based on greater planted and harvested area from the June 30 Acreage report. The yield is unchanged at 177.0 bushels per acre. With no use changes, ending stocks are up 70 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $6.65 per bushel.
U.S. oilseed production for 2022/23 is projected at 132.7 million tons, down 3.9
million from last month with reductions for soybeans, canola, peanuts, and cottonseed partly offset by an increase for sunflowerseed. Soybean production is projected at 4.5 billion bushels, down 135 million on lower harvested area. Harvested area, forecast at 87.5 million acres in the June 30 Acreage report, is down 2.6 million from last month.
The soybean yield forecast is unchanged at 51.5 bushels per acre. With lower production partly offset by higher beginning stocks, 2022/23 soybean supplies are reduced 125 million bushels. Soybean crush is reduced 10 million bushels reflecting a lower soybean meal export forecast.
Soybean exports are reduced 65 million bushels to 2.14 billion on lower U.S. supplies, increased South American supplies, and lower global imports. With lower supplies only partly offset by reduced use, ending stocks for 2022/23 are projected at 230 million bushels, down 50 million from last month.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2022/23 is forecast at $14.40 per bushel, down $0.30 from last month. The soybean meal price is projected at $390.00 per short ton, down $10.00.
The soybean oil price forecast of 69.0 cents per pound is down 1 cent.
The 2022/23 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, lower exports, higher crush, and lower ending stocks compared to last month. Global oilseed production is reduced 3.7 million tons to 643.1 million on lower soybean, rapeseed, cottonseed, and peanut production with higher sunflowerseed production partly offsetting.
The outlook for 2022/23 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, domestic use,
exports, and ending stocks. Supplies are raised on increased production, which is up 44 million
bushels to 1,781 million, on an increase in harvested area and higher yields. The first 2022
survey-based production forecast for other spring and Durum indicated a large increase from last year’s drought-reduced output at 503 million and 77 million bushels, respectively. Winter wheat production is also forecast higher at 1,201 million bushels on an increase in harvested area.
The 2022/23 export forecast is raised 25 million bushels to 800 million as the recent decline in U.S. prices makes exports more competitive in international markets. The projected season-average farm price (SAFP) is lowered $0.25 per bushel to $10.50 on declines in futures and cash prices.
The 2022/23 global wheat outlook is for fewer supplies, reduced consumption, higher exports, and increased stocks.