Alright everybody, we have once again made it to another NFL season, surviving the long braggadocious victory lap from Eagles fans, the Mel Kiper draft day meltdown, and weeks upon weeks of Jerry Jones drama. While I can’t promise the latter will end, what I can promise you is that every single Wednesday this football season, I’ll be releasing my picks for the week.
Last year we were hovering right around 70% accuracy, so let’s see if I’ve still got it.
Thursday Night Football: Cowboys @ Eagles, 7:20 PM (NBC/Peacock)
For whatever reason, people view the season opener for the defending Super Bowl champion as a “trap game.” The problem is that since 2000, the defending champs going into the year are 20-5. The Eagles return the bulk of their roster from their dominant Super Bowl victory, with an incredible mix of young and veteran stars, a coaching staff that never strays from its game plan, and a GM who keeps restocking the cupboard with quality players in the offseason.
Dallas, meanwhile, has Jerry Jones.
In all seriousness, Dallas does at least have Dak Prescott and a dangerous WR tandem in CeeDee Lamb and newly acquired George Pickens. The problem is that there are massive concerns about the Dallas run game, and since the Eagles have one of the best secondaries in the league, one of Dallas’ few strengths might be canceled out.
This is one of those checklist games, where you go down the imaginary checklist and try to find a reason to pick the underdog—and I just can’t do it. The Eagles have the better offense, defense, kicker, coaching staff, and home-field advantage. The only edge Dallas might have is in the return game, but unless Kavontae Turpin goes wild, there’s not much of a reason to pick against Philly.
Prediction: 28-17 Eagles
Friday Night Football: Chargers vs. Chiefs, 7:00 PM (YouTube)
Well, that certainly didn’t take long for the NFL to put another one of their games in a gimmick location. Considering that the website crashed about a month ago during the New Heights podcast with Taylor Swift at just over one million viewers, it’ll be interesting to see if they can make it through an entire NFL game without issues.
It just dawned on me that I probably should’ve been more specific about what gimmick the NFL was trying this week, because this game will also be in Brazil. Last year, the Eagles and the Packers squared off in their week one game that saw Philly roll to a 34-29 win, and saw the Packers lose quarterback Jordan Love for the early part of the year. One more high-profile injury, and the microscope will be firmly on the NFL and its scheduling gimmicks.
On paper, this is your usual AFC West showdown between the Chiefs and Chargers, with both teams knowing each other extremely well, so expect the game to be competitive. The Chiefs’ main weaknesses were at wide receiver and left tackle, and they addressed the tackle problem by drafting Ohio State’s Josh Simmons. The wide receiver room is better but will be hampered for the first six weeks of the year while Rashee Rice serves his suspension for reckless driving. That being said, the Chiefs still have Patrick Mahomes and the power of the Swifties behind them, so anything is possible.
The Chargers, under Jim Harbaugh, are looking to take the big step forward like Harbaugh’s 49ers did in his second year when they made the Super Bowl. The driving force behind this Chargers team will be their defense, with their offense looking to do just enough to eke out wins. Last year, the Chargers rode this philosophy to an 11-6 regular season record but were 2-6 against playoff teams, including a 32-12 drubbing vs. the Texans.
Prediction: 24-20 Chiefs
Sunday Noon Window
Buccaneers @ Falcons (FOX)
Very quietly, Baker Mayfield has turned himself into one of the top-10 QBs in football, breaking the 40-TD mark for the first time in his career while commanding an explosive Tampa Bay offense. The Bucs will have a new OC this season, with Josh Grizzard calling plays, as Tampa looks to extend its streak of five straight NFC South crowns.
On the other side, the Atlanta Falcons will be rolling out last year’s first-round pick, Michael Penix Jr., as the full-time starter. In three starts last year, he went 1-2 with three touchdowns and three interceptions. The Falcons’ offense has been dripping with potential for years, as fantasy football experts will eagerly push Atlanta skill players — only for those same players to consistently underperform.
Tampa Bay head coach Todd Bowles will look to ratchet up the pressure on Penix early with a barrage of creative blitzes. The key for the Falcons will be keeping their young QB upright and avoiding costly turnovers.
Prediction: 28-23 Buccaneers
Bengals @ Browns (FOX)
Joe Burrow is an elite quarterback, and if not for his defense being made of Swiss cheese last year, he might’ve taken home MVP. But if Burrow does have two career weak spots, they’re Week 1 games (1-4 record) and the Cleveland Browns (3-5 record). Cincinnati did sweep Cleveland last season, but they also opened the year with an embarrassing loss to a dreadful Patriots team.
The Browns enter the year with rock-bottom expectations. Most experts have them pegged as AFC basement dwellers, in contention for the number one overall pick. Joe Flacco is somehow under center, Myles Garrett is still a superstar, and… that’s about it.
At some point, the Bengals have to stop digging themselves an early-season hole. With Cincinnati returning the league’s most dangerous passing attack and Cleveland making no meaningful adjustments to its shredded secondary, this one feels lopsided.
Prediction: 35-21 Bengals
Dolphins @ Colts (CBS)
The Dolphins enter another season staring up at a glass ceiling encased in concrete. Until Miami proves it can win playoff games in the cold, their only path to relevance is a Buffalo collapse. Last year was a mess: Mike McDaniel lost the locker room, Tyreek Hill openly asked for a trade, and yet both remain — forced to make this South Beach marriage work.
The Colts will open with Daniel Jones at quarterback, having seemingly moved on from former first-rounder Anthony Richardson. Keep an eye on rookie TE Tyler Warren, who hopes to replicate the breakout Brock Bowers had for the Raiders last season. Add in Jonathan Taylor on the ground, a pinch of above-average defense, and Indianapolis has the makings of a respectable squad.
The matchup to watch: Hill and Waddle vs. a revamped Colts secondary featuring Charvarius Ward and Cam Bynum. If Miami’s stars pop off, that might be enough.
Prediction: 23-21 Dolphins
Raiders @ Patriots (CBS)
Both of these proud franchises spent last year buried in irrelevance, with rookie TE Brock Bowers and rookie QB Drake Maye providing the only sparks of hope. Enter 2025: the Raiders hire Pete Carroll, the Patriots bring in Mike Vrabel, and both fan bases suddenly believe again.
New England added Stefon Diggs to give Maye a true WR1, while the Raiders drafted RB Ashton Jeanty, who’s already drawing Saquon Barkley comparisons. The key battle will be New England’s rebuilt offensive line against Maxx Crosby, who is almost guaranteed double-digit sacks if healthy.
Both teams are banking on a coaching reset and fresh energy to put them back in the playoff conversation. Week one could prove crucial if these two squads stay in the hunt late.
Prediction: 20-17 Raiders
Cardinals @ Saints (CBS)
As if a 5-12 season wasn’t bad enough, the Saints also saw Derek Carr retire in the offseason, leaving them high and dry. Second-year QB Spencer Rattler won the starting job over Tyler Shough, but the real question in New Orleans is whether the defense can prevent games from being over by halftime.
Arizona, meanwhile, enters with momentum after just missing the playoffs in 2024. Kyler Murray finally has the weapons to thrive — Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride headline an exciting offense. The Cardinals also beefed up their defense; if that unit is even average, they could sneak into the postseason.
The Saints finished with the second-worst run defense in football last year, and Arizona’s ground game led by Murray and James Conner should feast.
Prediction: 27-14 Cardinals
Steelers @ Jets (CBS)
Aaron Rodgers is back in New York, this time with the Steelers, who also added DK Metcalf and Jalen Ramsey to bolster both sides of the ball. With TJ Watt wreaking havoc, Pittsburgh is once again dangerous.
The Jets, meanwhile, debut new head coach Aaron Glenn and new QB Justin Fields. The roster still has a strong defense and decent pass rush, but the ceiling remains limited with Fields at quarterback.
This game screams ugly: two underwhelming QBs, WRs facing stiff coverage, and no dominant run game. Expect a slugfest.
Prediction: 13-10 Steelers
Giants @ Commanders (FOX)
The Commanders are a trendy dark horse Super Bowl pick, led by last year’s Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels. After a shaky start, Daniels caught fire with 20 TDs in his final eight games, and Washington has bolstered both lines around him.
The Giants turn to Russell Wilson, now on his third team in as many years. Wilson can still make plays, but his alarming second-half drop-offs the last two seasons mean this might be his last chance as a starter.
The one edge New York has is its pass rush, which was strong last year and added Abdul Carter in the draft. Washington will be breaking in two new tackles — if the Giants are to pull the upset, their defense will lead the way.
Prediction: 27-20 Commanders
Panthers @ Jaguars (FOX)
Carolina shocked people last year by not being awful, thanks to Bryce Young’s late-season emergence (15 TDs, 6 INTs, plus 5 rushing scores over his final 10 games). The problem? Their defense was dead last, and not much has changed.
Jacksonville collapsed last year, with Trevor Lawrence stuck in neutral and the defense ranking near the bottom. Enter Travis Hunter, the two-way Heisman winner who could give the Jags both a WR boost and a CB upgrade — though how long his leash will be if he struggles on defense remains to be seen.
Both teams are desperate for a fresh start, but Carolina feels slightly closer to putting it together.
Prediction: 24-20 Panthers
Sunday Afternoon Window
Titans @ Broncos (FOX)
Denver is a trendy sleeper pick to dethrone the Chiefs, though last year’s 10-7 record came mostly against weak opponents (1-8 vs. winning teams). Bo Nix looks like the answer at QB, but was last year’s “elite defense” real, or just smoke and mirrors?
Tennessee is coming off a 3-14 disaster and used the No. 1 overall pick on Miami QB Cam Ward. His main goals: survive Denver’s pass rush and avoid testing Pat Surtain II, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year.
Prediction: 23-17 Broncos
49ers @ Seahawks (FOX)
The 49ers went from NFC champs to missing the playoffs, losing talent across the defense and trading away Deebo Samuel. Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle remain, but Kyle Shanahan’s window may be closing.
Seattle moves forward with Sam Darnold at QB after a brief MVP-caliber run in Minnesota. They also added Cooper Kupp to stabilize the offense. The question: can Darnold sustain this career revival, Geno Smith-style?
This one feels like a coin flip. San Francisco has the better roster, but Seattle’s home-field edge might tip it.
Prediction: 26-24 Seahawks
Lions @ Packers (CBS)
Detroit soared to new heights last year — then crashed back to earth in the playoffs. Both coordinators left for head coaching jobs, leaving questions about continuity.
The Packers went bold, trading two first-round picks for Micah Parsons. Jordan Love leads an offense projected to be among the league’s best, but the real test is whether they can keep Aidan Hutchinson off Love — Hutch had 7.5 sacks in just five games before injury.
The Lions will likely improve as the season progresses, but Week 1 at Lambeau with two new coordinators feels like too much to overcome.
Prediction: 30-28 Packers
Texans @ Rams (CBS)
Houston is good, but uninspiring — a double-digit win team that feels like divisional-round cannon fodder for the AFC elite.
The Rams, on the other hand, may have been the NFC’s surprise last year. Matthew Stafford’s health remains a ticking time bomb, but with a dominant pass rush and improved O-line, they pushed Philly to the brink in the playoffs.
The X-factor is the Rams’ pass rush vs. a Houston O-line that gave up 52 sacks last season. Advantage: LA.
Prediction: 26-17 Rams
Sunday Night Football: Ravens @ Bills (NBC, 7:20 PM)
We get a heavyweight clash right away with the last two MVPs: Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson. Both quarterbacks have been stellar in Week 1 historically, and both teams have Super Bowl aspirations.
Buffalo’s big question: can they replicate last year’s offensive balance, which gave Allen his first MVP and carried them to the AFC Championship? The Ravens will once again lean on smashmouth football — Jackson and Derrick Henry on the ground, a stingy defense, and mistake-free execution.
The Bills added Joey Bosa, but his best days may be behind him, and the rest of the defense is still average. Baltimore’s identity is clear: run, dominate time of possession, and grind out wins.
Prediction: 30-28 Ravens
Monday Night Football: Vikings @ Bears (ESPN/ABC, 7:15 PM)
The Vikings boast one of the deepest rosters in football — but also one of the shakiest QB situations. Rookie J.J. McCarthy hasn’t thrown a touchdown since the 2024 Rose Bowl and ended his college career with just four TDs over his final seven games. That’s concerning.
The good news? Head coach Kevin O’Connell has a track record of QB rehab (see: Sam Darnold’s MVP run), and DC Brian Flores has built one of the league’s most versatile defenses.
The Bears enter with new head coach Ben Johnson, one of the hottest hires since Sean McVay. Chicago hasn’t made many roster splashes, instead banking on Johnson’s offensive wizardry to lift them.
Both teams are breaking in brand-new interior offensive lines, which means protection will be shaky. In games like this, coaching decides it.
Prediction: 20-13 Vikings