Thursday Night Football: 49ers @ Rams, 7:15 PM (Prime)
For whatever reason, Thursday Night Football—often portrayed as the redheaded stepchild of primetime—has delivered the best matchups this year, and this one is no different.
The 49ers are hoping Brock Purdy won’t miss time after re-aggravating a toe injury in last week’s loss to Jacksonville. San Francisco’s blueprint has been to lean on a top-10 defense in both yards and points allowed. The offense, meanwhile, has been an oddball: fifth in total yards, but only 23rd in points per game (20.0). Against mostly average defenses so far, it’s still tough to get a read on how good they actually are.
The Rams, on the other hand, have scored at least 27 in three straight and just survived a scare against the Colts. In many ways, they’re a mirror image of the 49ers—stout defense, balanced attack—with the edge being their consistency on offense and slightly better run defense. While they’re not built as a ground-and-pound team, Kyren Williams ranks seventh in rushing yards and could be the X-factor.
This series has been even for the past five years, and I expect another close one. Six-and-a-half feels too big for a spread, but the Rams should still pull it out.
Prediction: 24-20 Rams
NFL London Game: Vikings vs. Browns, 8:30 AM (NFL Network)
After losing to Pittsburgh in Dublin last week, the Vikings now island-hop over to London to face Cleveland.
The Browns made waves by announcing rookie Dillon Gabriel will start at QB. But of course, the media circus will focus on fellow rookie Shedeur Sanders, who’ll be on the sideline pouting. If you’re into football drinking games, take a sip every time the broadcast cuts to him.
Off-field drama aside, the Browns’ defense is top-five in football, which means the Vikings must protect the ball at all costs. That wasn’t the case last week, when Minnesota ran for just 70 yards while allowing Pittsburgh 131 at 4.5 YPC. Carson Wentz has to manage the game, avoid turnovers, and keep Cleveland from getting short fields. Fortunately for Minnesota, the Browns have one of the five worst offenses in both yards and points per game.
The goal is simple: get to 24 points. If the Vikings can do that, they should win comfortably. With a brutal stretch of games looming, they can’t afford a slip-up in London.
Prediction: 24-13 Vikings
Sunday Noon Window
Raiders @ Colts (FOX)
The Colts nearly shocked the Rams last week, but a fluky fumble out of the end zone ended their hopes. Still, they have to feel good about being competitive. If they keep pairing a top-tier offense with a middle-of-the-road defense, they’ll be in the AFC South race.
The Raiders, meanwhile, just can’t get out of their own way. A blocked field goal doomed them last week, and turnovers remain the main culprit. Geno Smith leads the league with seven picks, and Vegas sits bottom-five in turnover differential. Until they clean that up, it’s hard to trust them.
Prediction: 26-17 Colts
Giants @ Saints (CBS)
Jaxson Dart’s debut was a success—165 total yards, two scores, no turnovers—and it gave the Giants their first win of the season. The defense is good enough to keep them in most games, but the offense must become more than just passable if Brian Daboll wants to save his job. Reaching .500 may be a stretch with this schedule, but the arrow points slightly up.
The Saints’ 31-19 loss to Buffalo looks bad on paper, but they were down only two midway through the fourth. Spencer Rattler isn’t turning it over, but this offense lacks punch and hasn’t topped 23 points all year. The defense, meanwhile, is allowing 30 per game. That’s a recipe for a top-three draft pick.
If New York avoids shooting itself in the foot, they’ll edge this one. If not, brace for a sports radio meltdown in the Big Apple.
Prediction: 23-17 Giants
Cowboys @ Jets (FOX)
They say a tie is like kissing your sister—or in Jerry Jones’ case, like fairly compensating employees. Either way, the Cowboys put up 40 on what was considered a decent defense as Dak Prescott had one of his best games. The defense, however, is still a mess, ranking last in yards allowed and second-to-last in points allowed.
The Jets’ loss to Miami was peak Jets: a goal-line fumble, a fumbled kickoff to start the half, and a phantom OPI wiping out a touchdown. That’s a 24-point swing gifted to the Dolphins. Same story—undisciplined, sloppy, uninspired.
This feels like a chaotic mess of a game, but one Dallas escapes.
Prediction: 28-27 Cowboys
Broncos @ Eagles (CBS)
Denver cruised 28-3 over Cincinnati in a game that told us nothing. Bo Nix set a career high in yards but also tossed a pick, while the defense bullied Jake Browning into 159 yards of offense. It looked exactly as expected—and nothing more.
Philadelphia, meanwhile, has stolen Kansas City’s old magic. They’re 4-0 thanks to a blocked punt TD, a blocked FG TD, and a goal-line tip-drill INT. They’re good, but the pixie dust eventually runs out. If the run game doesn’t wake up, losses will follow.
Still, Denver hasn’t proven it can beat a contender like this.
Prediction: 24-17 Eagles
Dolphins @ Panthers (FOX)
This one only intrigues me because the line (MIA -1.5) might coax me out of sports-betting semi-retirement. I was flat-out wrong about Carolina being a playoff dark horse. Bryce Young has regressed, the defense is awful, and the lone positive is that they have a win.
Miami just got its first win Monday night, though it required multiple lucky breaks. Losing Tyreek Hill for the season is devastating, and this offense already looked stuck. The silver lining? Rookie RB De’Von Achane is coming off 99 yards and now faces a bottom-10 run defense.
Prediction: 27-17 Dolphins
Texans @ Ravens (CBS)
With Lamar Jackson doubtful, Houston has the rare QB edge. C.J. Stroud threw two TDs in a shutout win over Tennessee, while the defense suffocated the Titans for just 175 yards. This team only needs 23 points a week with that D.
The Ravens, meanwhile, are the league’s walking injury report. Already down multiple starters, now their two-time MVP is likely out. Cooper Rush is capable, but unless he and Derrick Henry somehow hang 28, I can’t see a path.
Sometimes you just need a break. Facing the league’s worst defense and a backup QB might be exactly that for Houston.
Prediction: 27-20 Texans
Sunday Afternoon Window
Titans @ Cardinals (CBS)
The Titans are circling the drain. Cam Ward has been sacked a league-high 17 times behind an O-line that barely qualifies as functional, and his weapons are even worse. After a respectable Week One loss to Denver, it’s been downhill fast.
Arizona, meanwhile, is the embodiment of “mid.” Not good enough to contend, not bad enough to tank. The defense is average, the offense underachieving despite talent. They’re destined for 7-10.
Still, mediocrity beats misery.
Prediction: 26-17 Cardinals
Buccaneers @ Seahawks (CBS)
Tampa nearly upset Philly but made too many mistakes. At 3-1, they’re off to a hot start, but they’re still searching for that signature win.
Seattle, meanwhile, is flying under the radar at 3-1. The defense hasn’t allowed 20 all season despite facing Rodgers, Murray, and Purdy. Sam Darnold has piloted an offense that ranks middle-of-the-pack in yards but sixth in scoring at 27.8 per game.
I think Tampa finally cracks 20 on this defense, but not enough to win.
Prediction: 24-23 Seahawks
Lions @ Bengals (FOX)
Can you win MVP by not playing? Joe Burrow’s absence makes you wonder. Without him, Cincy’s passing game is lifeless, and the defense is still a sieve. With Burrow out until late in the year, hope is fading fast.
Detroit, meanwhile, is rolling again. The league’s top-scoring offense is balanced and relentless. The defense still has questions, but those don’t apply this week.
If the Bengals had any fight left, this is the week to show it. But if last Monday’s effort was the best they’ve got, this will be ugly.
Prediction: 37-13 Lions
Commanders @ Chargers (FOX)
It’s only Week Five, but this feels like a must-win for both.
The Chargers opened by dismantling Kansas City in Brazil, but since then haven’t cracked 21 points. Jim Harbaugh knows 20 a night won’t cut it, even with a good defense. One more loss and their 3-0 start evaporates.
Washington entered as a chic Super Bowl pick and looked the part in Week One against Vegas. Since then? They’ve been torched by a pedestrian Falcons offense and now face questions everywhere. Their offense is elite, but can the defense hold up?
This is the first truly dangerous offense the Chargers will see, and I’m not convinced they can keep up.
Prediction: 24-20 Commanders
Sunday Night Football: Patriots @ Bills (NBC, 7:20 PM)
Sunday Night Football has been a mixed bag—Ravens-Bills delivered, Falcons-Vikings flopped, Chiefs-Giants was a snoozer, and Cowboys-Packers gave us chaos. So who knows what this one brings.
On paper, Buffalo should roll. They’ve scored 30+ in every game and, outside of the Week One loss to Baltimore, have held opponents under 21. The soft schedule is the only reason for pause, because Mike Vrabel’s teams specialize in making life miserable for better opponents.
New England sits 2-2, beating who they should and losing who they should. The 42-13 win over Carolina was encouraging, with all three phases contributing. With a soft stretch ahead, this is a sneaky big game—beat Buffalo, and the Pats could be in first place by midseason.
Still, the Bills are too good and too steady.
Prediction: 30-23 Bills
Monday Night Football: Chiefs @ Jaguars (ABC/ESPN, 7:15 PM)
Patrick Mahomes finally looked like Patrick Mahomes last week, but that was against a bottom-feeder defense. This is a tougher test.
Jacksonville has a top-five run defense but ranks 24th against the pass. That matches up poorly with Kansas City’s strengths, especially with Xavier Worthy back stretching the field. The Chiefs just need the run game to stay on schedule.
The Jags average 24 ppg, but a quarter of that came on short fields. Their offense is closer to 18 a game in reality. The defense makes up for it, leading the league in takeaways and producing big returns on special teams.
The X-factor? Travis Etienne. He’s third in rushing yards, but nearly half came on just four plays. Outside of those, he’s averaging 3.5 per carry. Kansas City’s run D has held up well outside of Barkley’s 88 on 22 totes.
This will come down to turnovers. The Chiefs have just one giveaway all year, and if they protect the ball again, I don’t trust Trevor Lawrence to win a shootout.
Prediction: 27-21 Chiefs
Overall Record: 39-24-1 (Last Week: 8-7-1)