Thursday Night Football: Steelers @ Bengals, 7:15 PM (Prime)
With Joe Burrow out until at least Week 16, the Bengals made the decision to sign Joe Flacco to keep alive the outside possibility that a hobbled Burrow could return and save the season with three games left to play. With Flacco under center against the Packers last week, Cincinnati scored the third-most points they have all season. However, when that total is only 18 points, that’s not saying much. The defense also did its usual bit — allowing over 400 yards of offense and 27 points, 17 of which came in the final quarter.
The Steelers finally picked the right time to combine their usual middle-of-the-road defense with their typically anemic offense — because everyone else in the AFC North is on at least their second quarterback of the season. Pittsburgh has had a nasty habit of getting off to hot starts only to watch its divisional lead slip away late in the year, eventually becoming cannon fodder for real AFC contenders in the Wild Card round. The Steelers’ offense ranks in the bottom ten in both passing and rushing yards per game, while their defense gives up the eighth-most yards per game. Their one saving grace: they’re only allowing 21.4 points per game, good for 16th in the league.
The real test for Pittsburgh begins next week when they face a three-game stretch against playoff-caliber teams. For now, though, they should be more than capable of taking out the trash like they usually do.
Prediction: 24-20 Steelers
NFL London Game: Rams vs. Jaguars, 8:30 AM (NFL Network)
Outside of the Steelers, if you asked me which AFC team is most likely to completely fall off a cliff and miss the playoffs, I’d say the Jacksonville Jaguars. When their offense isn’t being bailed out by the opposing team, it’s downright dreadful to watch. Their 31-point “explosion” against Kansas City came largely thanks to a pick-six, a penalty that turned an interception into a touchdown, and a handful of special teams miscues by the Chiefs. Seattle made no such mistakes last week, holding Jacksonville to 12 points. Now they face an even better defense in the Rams, who rank top ten in both yards and points allowed this season and have forced the third-most turnovers. Don’t be surprised if the Jaguars go from 4–2 to 5–5 in a hurry.
For Sean McVay — supposedly an offensive genius — the Rams’ offense is downright boring at times. Even with a top-five NFC quarterback in Matthew Stafford, a strong running back in Kyren Williams, and a dynamic receiving duo in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, the Rams could only muster 17 points against a Ravens defense that was allowing 35.4 points per game heading into Week 6. I’m higher on the Rams than the Jaguars because they’re better coached and more consistent, but they need to fix their offensive inconsistency if they want to be taken seriously as a contender.
Anything can happen in international games, but all signs point to the Rams winning this one comfortably — even if it’s not a blowout.
Prediction: 23-16 Rams
Sunday Noon Window
Saints @ Bears (FOX)
The Bears got an absolute gift of a win handed to them by Washington on Monday night after a late fumble set them up at midfield, trailing by two with three minutes to play. Chicago executed perfectly, running out the clock and setting up the game-winning field goal — something they undoubtedly would’ve botched last season. I still don’t fully trust their defense, and I’m not sold on Caleb Williams as the long-term answer at quarterback, but I can’t deny that they’re better coached than last year, which should be worth a few more wins.
The Saints, meanwhile, dropped to 1–5 after a 25–19 loss to the upstart Patriots. Spencer Rattler has shown flashes that he can be a high-end backup in this league for years to come, but unless he starts stringing together multi-touchdown games, the Saints will eventually make the switch to first-round pick Tyler Shough to see what they’ve got. New Orleans clearly needs help across the board — and if Rattler continues to raise his stock, he could become an intriguing trade chip for a QB-needy team this offseason.
This will be a closer game than most expect, but I think Chicago can avoid the letdown after an emotional win.
Prediction: 24-20 Bears
Dolphins @ Browns (CBS)
This one’s just not enticing. It’s clear that the locker room in Miami is fractured and disorganized — this might be the end of the Mike McDaniel era in South Beach. The Dolphins have allowed the most rushing yards per game in the league and were shredded last week by Chargers running back Kimani Vidal, who came off the practice squad to put up 124 yards on 18 touches. Still, despite their struggles, Tua Tagovailoa gave the team a chance with a late touchdown strike to Darren Waller — only for the defense to whiff on a sack and an open-field tackle that set up a game-winning field goal for L.A.
I feel for Dillon Gabriel, who’s being asked to play like a first-overall pick despite being a third-rounder — all because of who’s sitting behind him on the depth chart. Make no mistake: as the losses pile up, so will the calls for Shedeur Sanders to play, from both the media and ownership. Kevin Stefanski is a good coach, but he’d be wise to leave the circus that is the Cleveland Browns after this season. The one saving grace is their defense, which remains one of the best units in football despite the chaos.
Vegas has Cleveland as a slight favorite, but I think Miami’s being undervalued. Yes, they’re 1–5, but they’ve led or been tied in the fourth quarter in five of those six games. Meanwhile, the Browns haven’t scored more than 17 points all year and are averaging just 90.7 rushing yards per game.
Prediction: 20-17 Dolphins
Patriots @ Titans (CBS)
The Patriots are in the same boat as the Steelers — as long as they handle business against weaker teams, they’ll be fine. Drake Maye’s performance has some calling him a dark horse MVP candidate and perhaps, dare I say, the second coming of Tom Brady. Let’s slow down a bit. New England is good and well-coached, but their 4–1 start has more to do with a cakewalk schedule than dominance on the field. They’ve beaten the teams they should — but not in commanding fashion.
Tennessee, meanwhile, just fired its head coach — making it four straight first-overall quarterback picks whose coaches have been canned in Year 1. Mike Vrabel wasn’t the problem, but when the wrong side wins a power struggle, disaster follows. The Titans have no identity, no direction, and no market appeal to lure major free agents in what looks like a never-ending rebuild.
Their offense is arguably the worst in the league, and while New England’s pass defense has been leaky at times, their run defense is elite. A one-dimensional Titans offense doesn’t inspire much confidence.
Prediction: 24-13 Patriots
Eagles @ Vikings (FOX)
Remember in 2023 when the Eagles beat the Chiefs in the regular season after their Super Bowl rematch, talked a ton of smack, and then promptly collapsed before limping into the playoffs? History might be repeating itself. Since beating Kansas City this year, the Eagles have dropped two of their last four as they’ve gone away from the run. In their two losses, Philadelphia averaged 35.5 pass attempts per game; in their five wins, just 25.2. Many have pointed fingers at A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith for complaining about targets, but Brown’s usage hasn’t changed — it’s Smith’s that’s dipped.
Minnesota, meanwhile, barely survived Cleveland in London, nearly throwing away a very winnable game. J.J. McCarthy’s status is TBD, but it’s likely the Vikings ease him back in against a softer opponent. For now, Carson Wentz gives them their best chance to win, so long as he protects the ball.
The Eagles are a 1.5-point road favorite — a sign bettors are cooling on the defending NFC champs. The Vikings have the second-best pass defense in football but the ninth-worst rush defense, and most of their opponents have been poor rushing teams. If Philadelphia doesn’t run the ball at least 40 times, it might go down as coaching malpractice.
Prediction: 23-21 Eagles
Panthers @ Jets (FOX)
To quote Michael Corleone: “Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in.” That’s how I feel about the Carolina Panthers. I thought they had playoff potential early in the year, sold all my stock after their dreadful start — and now they’ve won two straight, with a passable offense and real momentum heading into a matchup with the hapless Jets.
The Jets, meanwhile, somehow managed -10 net passing yards last week. Justin Fields was sacked nine times against Denver as he repeatedly refused to throw the ball away. The defense finally showed signs of life, allowing just 13 points — but the offense was so bad that the Jets remain winless at 0–6.
A lot of people will pick New York to get its first win at home, but not me. The Panthers have been outscored 95–45 on the road this year, but I’m giving in to temptation and taking Carolina.
Prediction: 24-23 Panthers
Raiders @ Chiefs (CBS)
Let’s make one thing clear — yes, the Chiefs picked up a quality win over the Lions last week, but I’m not ready to say they’re “back” until they get three games over .500. The offense gets a boost this week with Rashee Rice returning from suspension, and Kansas City has averaged 31.6 points over its last three games. The defense isn’t as dominant as in 2022, but it’s still solid — and gets stronger as games go on. Against Detroit, the Lions racked up 140 yards on their first two drives, then averaged just 26 yards on their final six.
The Raiders, meanwhile, basically got a bye week facing Tennessee. Geno Smith threw yet another interception — his tenth of the season — but the Raiders still handled business to earn their second win. Ashton Jeanty continues to improve at running back, but Kansas City has been elite against the run, holding Detroit under 100 yards. Defensively, Las Vegas has been inconsistent — holding weak offenses to 20 points or less but getting torched by the Commanders and Colts for 40 apiece.
The Raiders usually play Kansas City tough at least once a year, but I don’t see that same fire in this group. While 12.5 points feels like too big of a spread, I still expect a comfortable Chiefs win.
Prediction: 30-20 Chiefs
Sunday Afternoon Window
Giants @ Broncos (CBS)
The Giants showed surprising bounce-back ability, going from a disastrous showing against the then-winless Saints to dominating the defending Super Bowl champions last Thursday night. One thing to take into consideration is how good the defense has been since that blowup against Dallas — allowing only 19 points per game over the last four weeks. The offense is still a bit spotty, but putting up 34 points against a mostly healthy Philadelphia defense is noteworthy, to say the least. Jaxson Dart might not be an above-average quarterback yet, but the combination of Dart at QB and Cam Skattebo at running back has brought a fire and energy to this Giants offense that it’s desperately needed.
Speaking of defenses on a roll, the Denver Broncos held Justin Fields and the Jets to -10 net passing yards in London last week, racking up nine sacks in the process. The Giants’ O-line performed admirably against the Eagles, but now they’re facing a different level of beast in the Broncos’ pass rush, which has piled up 30 sacks through six games — most in the league. Denver’s defense, along with a revitalized run game, has done a good job of masking the fact that Bo Nix has been very pedestrian this season, ranking 21st in QBR and 24th in passer rating. Still, he’s done enough to get the Broncos off to a 4-2 start — and with that defense, “just enough” will usually be good enough.
This is a classic logic-versus-momentum type of pick. Logic says that betting on a rookie quarterback to walk into Mile High against the league’s best pass rush is foolish — Denver feels like the easy choice. Momentum, however, says the Giants are hot, and the Broncos have been flirting with disaster all year. And every week, the NFL seems to deliver one big upset.
Prediction: 17-14 Giants
Colts @ Chargers (CBS)
Speaking of flirting with disaster, the Chargers were one missed sack away from potentially dropping their third game in a row. But Justin Herbert, as he’s done so many times before, put the team on his back and made the play needed to win. The Chargers have been the definition of streaky over the past few seasons, and even with Jim Harbaugh in charge, that hasn’t changed — the only difference is that now it’s the offense underperforming instead of the defense.
There might not be a bigger surprise this year than the Indianapolis Colts. They’ve been winning games — and looking good doing it. Allowing 320 passing yards to Jacoby Brissett and the Cardinals last week is concerning, but the Chargers’ passing attack has been just as hot and cold as it gets. Indy’s offense might be one of the league’s more underrated units, ranking top 10 in both passing and rushing yards while leading the NFL in scoring at 32.0 points per game. The real question mark is the defense. While they’ve feasted on some weak opponents like the Titans, Dolphins, and Raiders, they’re allowing 27.6 points per game against everyone else.
The Chargers went 2-6 against playoff teams last year, and 0-8 the year before that. To say they’ve struggled against quality opponents would be an understatement. The Colts have already beaten a good team in Denver and, if not for a fluky fumble against the Rams, could be 6-0 right now — but there’s still that lingering question of legitimacy. This feels like a must-win game for both sides, as a loss could trigger an apathetic “here we go again” in either locker room.
Prediction: 27-26 Colts
Commanders @ Cowboys (FOX)
Right now, the Washington Commanders feel like the NFC’s version of the Miami Dolphins — electric and fun to watch on offense, but with defensive issues that could hold them back. Jayden Daniels’ two turnovers killed Washington against Chicago and overshadowed his three-touchdown performance. The Commanders have all the tools to be a top-five offense, but they lack the consistent execution needed to be elite. Now they face a Dallas team that can light up the scoreboard with the best of them, making this matchup anything but easy.
Dak Prescott has to be one of the most frustrated players in the NFL. He’s playing at an MVP level, is one of the highest-paid players in the league, and yet has to watch his defense give away his hard work almost every single week. It’s hard to feel sympathy for a Cowboy, but Jerry Jones’ defensive “creation” makes it possible. There’s no fixing this defense this season, but if Dallas can make it even mediocre next year, they’ll have a real contender on their hands.
This game has all the makings of a chaotic Texas shootout. Both defenses are unreliable, and both offenses can light up the scoreboard. Some will say Dallas needs this win more, but with Kansas City, Detroit, Seattle, and Denver coming up in four of their next five, Washington can’t afford to drop it either.
Prediction: 35-30 Commanders
Packers @ Cardinals (FOX)
The Green Bay Packers might be the most boring good team I’ve ever seen. They let the Bengals hang around far too long last week, and even though they eventually won by two scores, it was still very much a game until the end. I feel about the Packers’ offense the same way I feel about the Commanders’ defense — on paper, they’re solid, maybe even good, but there’s just something about them I don’t trust. Scoring only ten points in three quarters against one of the worst defenses in the league raised plenty of red flags, no matter how they finished. On the other side of the ball, Green Bay’s defense has been excellent, holding every team but Dallas under 20 points. Micah Parsons is on pace for around nine sacks this year.
Kyler Murray’s status is still in question, and even though Jacoby Brissett threw for over 300 yards last week, I still don’t trust this Cardinals offense to show up. At some point, a team can only live off potential for so long before it becomes fraudulence — and Arizona has been teetering on that edge for quite some time. Even if Kyler plays, I’m not convinced he’ll put together a good enough performance to beat a quality opponent like Green Bay, just as he couldn’t against top teams last season.
This feels like one of those “checklist games” — the Packers have the better quarterback, running game, defense, and coaching staff. The only real concern is that they’re on the road. But with Arizona looking listless, I don’t see an upset brewing here.
Prediction: 27-20 Packers
Sunday Night Football: Falcons @ 49ers (NBC, 7:20 PM)
For whatever reason, the San Francisco 49ers just can’t stay healthy. With All-Pro Fred Warner now out for the season, the mood in the Bay has soured considerably following a 30-19 loss to the Buccaneers. Brock Purdy appears to need at least one more week before returning, which means another week of Mac Jones. While Jones did throw for 350 yards last week, he also tossed a pair of back-breaking interceptions that led to ten Tampa Bay points. The real concern for San Francisco, beyond the injuries, is their inability to run the football. Right now, only the Bengals and Titans have a worse ground game. The run game is vital to Kyle Shanahan’s system — and the 49ers’ success — as they’ve finished top ten in rushing yards per game in three of the past four seasons.
For one half on Monday night, the Falcons looked like a top-five team in the NFC, as they were a toe away from hanging 28 points on the Bills in the first half. The second half, however, was a different story. Buffalo immediately closed the gap, and while Atlanta never lost the lead, the offense had more than its share of chances to seal the game but came up short — a pair of stalled drives and a blocked field goal kept the Bills hanging around. That said, the Falcons’ defense looks legitimate. After finishing near the bottom in sacks last season, they now rank a very respectable 11th. That improved pass rush, combined with a talented secondary, smothered reigning MVP Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense for most of the game.
I’ll say it again: the closer Michael Penix Jr. gets to being the 15th-best quarterback in the league, the farther the Falcons can go. The talent is there — now they just need to start putting it all together.
Prediction: 27-23 Falcons
Monday Night Football
Buccaneers @ Lions (ABC/ESPN, 6:00 PM)
For the first time since Week 1, the Detroit Lions’ offense looked mortal — and in both of their losses, their run game has disappeared. To make matters worse, their already short-handed secondary will be even thinner after Brian Branch’s suspension was upheld following his postgame altercation. What’s more concerning than the loss itself is how the Lions handled it. Most great teams respond with canned lines about fixing mistakes in practice. The Lions, however, spent the week claiming they were robbed by the officials against Kansas City — and don’t seem particularly focused on the very dangerous opponent ahead of them.
Tampa Bay, meanwhile, has lived up to the hype so far. Baker Mayfield has been one of the early-season MVP candidates after leading a ragtag group of receivers to a win over the 49ers last week. While there are fair questions about whether the Bucs can sustain their offensive production given their injury situation, the fact that Detroit’s defense is banged up should even the playing field a bit.
The matchup to watch is Tampa Bay’s run defense versus Detroit’s dynamic backfield duo of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. In their wins, the Lions average over 150 yards on the ground; in their two losses, they barely top 70. Tampa Bay comes in with one of the best run defenses in football — and if that trend holds true, this could be a big night for the Buccaneers.
Prediction: 27-21 Buccaneers
Texans @ Seahawks (ESPN, 9:00 PM)
The Seahawks might be the best team nobody’s talking about. The offense has proven to be more than capable this season, and their defense — outside of that Tampa Bay game — has held opponents under 15 points per game. Even in their rather subdued 20-12 win over Jacksonville, it’s worth noting that while the offense didn’t light up the scoreboard, they also didn’t make any costly mistakes. Questions will always linger about Sam Darnold’s ability to perform when the pressure is on, but so far, he’s been an upgrade over what Seattle had last year in Geno Smith.
The Texans, meanwhile, have strung together back-to-back strong offensive performances heading into their bye week. Now they’ll try to prove that wasn’t just a mirage. I’m still not sold on Jacksonville as a playoff team, but with the Colts being better than expected, that’s bad news for Houston — a team that’s made a habit of stumbling its way to double-digit wins and a playoff berth in what had been a soft AFC South. That’s no longer the case, and with plenty of tough matchups ahead, they can’t afford to just win the games they’re “supposed to.”
I expect this one to be a low-scoring, rock-fight type of game between two excellent defenses.
It’s time to find out who the real C.J. Stroud is — the one who’s thrown six touchdowns and zero picks over the past two weeks, or the one who opened the season with two touchdowns and three interceptions in his first three games.
Prediction: 17-13 Seahawks
Overall Record: 55-37-1 (Last Week: 10-5)