Thursday Night Football: Ravens @ Dolphins (Prime, 7:15 PM)
The Ravens have announced that they expect Lamar Jackson to return to the starting lineup this Thursday against the Dolphins, and after an upset win over the Bears last week, Baltimore might still have a chance to right the ship. Jackson obviously gives the Ravens a chance to win each week, and after back-to-back strong outings by the much-maligned defense, they might finally be turning the corner. If Baltimore can get back to .500 by the time they face the Bengals on Thanksgiving, the entire narrative around this team will have changed from where it was just a week ago.
The Dolphins entered last week with one of the worst run defenses in the league — then promptly held one of the NFL’s better rushing attacks to just 45 yards. Add in that their once-struggling offense exploded for 34 points against what many consider a respectable defense, and that performance certainly raised eyebrows. Much like their opponent, if you squint hard enough, you can see a possible path where a hot Miami team could pull itself back to .500 and sneak into postseason contention. The real question is which version of their rush defense shows up — the one that held Bijan Robinson to 25 yards, or the one that was giving up an average of 159 per game heading into last week?
I don’t trust either of these teams right now. Too many people seem to be penciling in the Ravens for an easy win without remembering that when Lamar Jackson got hurt, Baltimore was 1–3 and had just lost by three scores to the Chiefs. I still think the Ravens are the better team, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if the Dolphins pulled off the win.
Prediction: 28–23 Ravens
Sunday Noon Window
Bears @ Bengals (CBS)
The Bears come into this game in absolute shell shock after getting destroyed by the Tyler Huntley-led Ravens, 30–16. This next four-game stretch is crucial for Chicago because with a back-half slate featuring the Packers (twice), Eagles, 49ers, and Lions, there’s no guarantee they’ll recover from a November slump. The lone bright spot from last week is that even in defeat, the Bears still managed nearly 380 yards of total offense — encouraging news as they face a Bengals team that just gave up 39 points to the Jets.
Let’s get one thing clear: the worst unit in the NFL is the Cincinnati Bengals defense, and it’s not particularly close. The Jets scored 39 total points across their previous three games before facing the Bengals — then matched that total in one afternoon. Joe Flacco clearly still has some juice left, but he’s not a miracle worker. When your offense gives you 38 points, you should win that game. There’s absolutely nothing positive to take away from that performance outside of the offensive output.
Neither side can afford a loss here, as the path to 10–7 becomes a lot murkier for the loser. I have no reason to believe the Bengals can stop the Bears’ offense, and I think it’s far more likely that Chicago’s defense finds a couple of stops than Cincinnati holding the Bears under 30 points.
Prediction: 33–28 Bears
Vikings @ Lions (FOX)
The Vikings don’t know what to do at quarterback now that Carson Wentz is out for the year. It’s clear they were content to let him take the punishment behind a porous offensive line to protect their fragile first-round pick, but now what? Do they throw J.J. McCarthy back out there, turn to undrafted rookie Max Brosmer, or make a desperation trade for Kirk Cousins? Nobody knows — and Minnesota’s not saying. It’s obvious they don’t trust McCarthy to make it through the season, and with the defense getting shredded in back-to-back weeks, things are feeling grim in Minneapolis.
I’ll admit, I didn’t think the Lions would dominate the Buccaneers the way they did in Week 7. Now, coming off a bye week, they have a chance to make another statement — this time against a division rival. While I still have concerns about their defense being good enough to reach a Super Bowl, it’s more than adequate against a Vikings offense that’s topped 22 points only once in the past six weeks. Offensively, the Lions have put up strong numbers against nearly everyone outside of the Chiefs and Packers, and after watching the Vikings give up 200+ rushing yards to the Chargers, I don’t see them stopping David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs.
For the first time in a while, the Vikings look like an organization without a plan. Until proven otherwise, there’s no reason to pick them.
Prediction: 30–17 Lions
Panthers @ Packers (FOX)
For the first half against Pittsburgh, the Packers were nowhere to be found — trailing 16–7 at the break. Then, they suddenly remembered they’re supposed to be a good team and outscored the Steelers 28–9 in the second half. One of the most underrated players this season has been tight end Tucker Kraft, who’s on pace for over 1,100 yards and 14 touchdowns, and yet almost nobody has noticed. Micah Parsons added another sack (now at 6.5 for the year), while Rashan Gary recorded two more (7.5 total), as the Packers’ defense continues to quietly deliver. Jordan Love might never be an MVP-level quarterback, but there’s value in boring consistency — and around 27 points per game.
I said the Bills were going to steamroll the Panthers last week, and boy was I right as Carolina got thumped 40–9. It’s clear the Panthers can beat bottom-tier teams, but they have nothing for contenders. With Bryce Young’s status still uncertain, the load once again falls on Rico Dowdle, one of this year’s better feel-good stories. Unfortunately, he’ll face a Packers defense allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per game (78.9).
I’ve made a habit of calling Green Bay the most boring “good” team in football, and I’d love to see them put together a full four-quarter performance for once. Whether that happens or not, they should handle business comfortably here.
Prediction: 28–14 Packers
Chargers @ Titans (CBS)
The Chargers get a glorified bye week as they face the hapless Titans, who are coming off yet another predictable blowout loss — 38–14 to the Colts. There’s simply nothing positive to say about Tennessee. Rookie QB Cam Ward has been thrust into one of the bleakest situations imaginable: a terrible offensive line, the league’s worst skill-position group, and a defense ranked near the bottom in both yards and points allowed.
There are times when I can at least find a way for an underdog to win, but not here. The only reason to pick the Titans is if you think the Chargers will completely implode. Since Jim Harbaugh took over, though, they’ve largely avoided those kinds of losses — even with a few late-game meltdowns earlier in the year. The Chargers just check every box, and Tennessee doesn’t have a single clear advantage.
This season has had its share of “any given Sunday” moments, but a Titans win here would be nothing short of monumental.
Prediction: 27–10 Chargers
Falcons @ Patriots (CBS)
Last week, I called the Falcons “a team that, on paper, should be much better than it is, but the moment you start believing in them, they fall off a cliff.” And boy, did they prove me right — getting pummeled 34–10 by a Dolphins team that had been ice-cold. I understand it was Kirk Cousins starting instead of Michael Penix Jr., but the fact that Atlanta managed fewer than 50 rushing yards against one of the league’s worst run defenses is embarrassing. They entered the game with the NFL’s best pass defense — and promptly let Tua Tagovailoa shred them for four touchdowns and no picks, while also giving up 140 rushing yards to a team averaging 92. It was as bad as a performance gets.
The Patriots, meanwhile, have done exactly what I said they could: by Week 9, they’re atop not only the AFC East but the entire AFC. Still, it needs to be said — they’ve beaten a lot of bad teams. Their opponents’ combined record sits at 15–32 (or 10–30 if you remove their win over Buffalo). Over the next few weeks, we’ll see how real New England is as they start the tougher part of their schedule. Drake Maye looks like the best quarterback from last year’s draft class, but now we’ll see how he adjusts as defenses get more film on him.
This is an opportunity for both sides to prove something. Each team has beaten Buffalo this year, and this matchup serves as a measuring stick for both.
Prediction: 24–23 Falcons
49ers @ Giants (CBS)
It’s been a rough couple of weeks for the Giants. After their historic collapse against Denver in Week 7, they followed it up with a lopsided loss to the Eagles and lost rookie running back Cam Skattebo for the year. Sometimes a single loss can break a team, and that may be what’s happened in New York. The defense has reverted to sieve status, and Jaxson Dart’s weapons are dropping like flies — not a good sign moving forward.
The 49ers, meanwhile, are a case study in why coaching matters. Despite a rash of injuries and offseason depth losses, they’re still above .500 heading into November. Last week’s performance against Houston was concerning — Mac Jones looked more like the version that got cut from New England, and the defense surrendered over 300 passing yards — but the thing about San Francisco is that they rarely stack bad games.
The 49ers are simply better across the board. Even with injury concerns, Kyle Shanahan has consistently gotten the most out of his roster — something his counterpart Brian Daboll hasn’t managed this year.
Prediction: 24–17 49ers
Colts @ Steelers (CBS)
The Colts have been as hot as anyone in the NFL, winning and doing so convincingly. Jonathan Taylor is well on pace to win Offensive Player of the Year after another huge performance — 153 yards on just 12 carries with three total touchdowns. Daniel Jones continues to manage games efficiently, and the defense has been revitalized under new coordinator Lou Anarumo. For anyone still skeptical about the Colts, the upcoming stretch will be telling: Steelers, Falcons, Texans, Chiefs, Jaguars, and Seahawks — all teams with postseason potential.
Pittsburgh, on the other hand, struggled badly in the second half against Green Bay. The offense couldn’t keep up as the Packers racked up nearly 300 yards after halftime. At this point, we know who the Steelers are: they won’t often crack 30 points, and they’ll need their defense to carry them in tight games.
The elephant in the room is that both pass defenses rank in the bottom five in yards allowed. The Colts prefer to build around Jonathan Taylor, but Daniel Jones has been quietly efficient. If Aaron Rodgers still has any magic left in that arm, now would be the time to use it.
Prediction: 33–26 Colts
Broncos @ Texans (FOX)
Sometimes you see a betting line and swear it has a question mark next to it. That’s how it feels seeing the Texans as 1.5-point home favorites against Denver. This would make sense if the Broncos were coming off another self-inflicted near meltdown like the one against the Jets — but over their last five quarters, Denver has scored 77 points. It’s interesting to see how highly oddsmakers rate Houston’s defense, and if they think their offense as capable enough to justify that line.
Maybe Vegas realizes what I do — that the Texans are staring down a brutal second-half schedule, and need to stack up wins fast with two games against the Colts plus matchups against the Chiefs, Jaguars, Bills, and Chargers still remaining. Houston’s defense has been outstanding, allowing over 20 points just once this season, but the offense remains inconsistent at 3–4 overall. C.J. Stroud has been sharp lately with nine touchdowns to just two picks over his last four games, but he’ll need to keep playing mistake-free football.
As much as I’d like to pick Houston here, they haven’t proven they can win against a quality opponent yet.
Prediction: 17–14 Broncos
Sunday Afternoon Window
Jaguars @ Raiders (FOX)
The Jaguars were in desperate need of a bye week after a two-game free fall that saw them get outscored 55-19. I understand why people were excited about Jacksonville after they beat the Chiefs, but that had a lot more to do with Kansas City handing that game away than it did with the Jaguars looking like a playoff contender. The Raiders aren’t a good team, and if you can stop Ashton Jeanty, you stop their entire offense. As long as you don’t turn the ball over, you’re not going to give them a chance to win. The one thing the Raiders manage to do well is stop the run, which means Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars passing game will need to show up to avoid an embarrassing slip-up.
The Raiders got absolutely devastated by the Chiefs, failing to crack 100 total yards of offense and never coming close to the scoreboard in their 31-0 shutout loss. Geno Smith may not have thrown an interception, but the Raiders’ offense was lifeless, and with Jacksonville possessing one of the best run defenses in the league, they need him to start looking like the quarterback they paid $66.5 million guaranteed for. Pete Carroll might be a Super Bowl–winning coach, but right now he just looks like he’s going through the motions and collecting a check—much like Mike Ditka did during his New Orleans stint. Simply put, there’s no spark or energy around this Raiders team.
I might not rate the Jaguars very highly, but I rate the Raiders even less.
Prediction: 24-14 Jaguars
Saints @ Rams (FOX)
Well, the Spencer Rattler era in New Orleans is officially over, as the Tyler Shough era begins. The 40th overall pick will make his first start—and usually, you’d expect a team to pick a favorable matchup for its rookie debut. Not the Saints. They’re throwing Shough straight into the deep end against a Rams defense that ranks second in the league in sacks (26) and sixth in opponent passer rating (84.6). Unless Shough is the second coming of Drew Brees, this is shaping up to be a long afternoon for Saints fans.
The Rams might be in contention with Green Bay for the title of “most boring good team,” but they’re still a good one. Even though I feel like more should be squeezed out of their offense, the defense has done more than enough to hold the fort while things get sorted on the other side of the ball. They’re well-coached, stable, and built with a blend of young playmakers and veteran leadership—everything the Saints are not.
There’s really no need for further analysis. Either Tyler Shough is the second coming of Drew Brees and shocks the world, or the Rams overwhelm a young rookie and keep things rolling.
Prediction: 27-10 Rams
Chiefs @ Bills (CBS)
This game is the reason FOX loaded up the noon window—because this matchup is going to have every set of eyes glued to it. Chiefs vs. Bills has become the rivalry of the modern NFL, with Buffalo usually winning in the regular season, only for Kansas City to crush their dreams come playoff time.
For the first time in this rivalry’s recent history, though, it’s Kansas City that needs the win. Yes, they’ve looked dominant in their last few outings, outscoring the Lions, Raiders, and Commanders 89-24 over their past nine quarters. But because of their 0-2 start and the embarrassing loss to Jacksonville, the Chiefs are still barely a playoff team and sit a full game behind Denver in the AFC West. In the past, these matchups usually meant more to Buffalo—but not this year.
The Bills, despite dropping two of their last three, are still a very good team with the second-best quarterback in football in Josh Allen. But Allen won’t be the most important player on the field for Buffalo—that title belongs to running back James Cook. In the Bills’ five wins, Cook has averaged 123.4 rushing yards; in their two losses, just 68. The Chiefs haven’t allowed a 100-yard rusher all year, and if they can bottle up Cook, odds are they’ll slow down the entire Buffalo offense.
Both teams will be locked in for this one, and while it’ll likely come down to the wire, this feels like the time Kansas City finally gets the regular-season win that’s eluded them in this rivalry.
Prediction: 28-24 Chiefs
Sunday Night Football: Seahawks @ Commanders (NBC, 7:20 PM)
The good news for Commanders fans is that Jayden Daniels is on track to start this week against the Seahawks. The bad news is that Terry McLaurin is likely out with another injury — and Washington is heading into a brutal stretch that could turn their current three-game skid into a five-game spiral. The Commanders just feel like a team that wasn’t ready for a tough schedule. Last year, they feasted on weaker opposition and managed to sneak into the playoffs, but this season they’ve looked incapable of hanging with quality competition week after week.
Seattle enters this one rested off a bye and boasting one of the league’s least talked-about elite units — their defense. The Seahawks have allowed more than 20 points just once all year. Sam Darnold has made the Seattle front office look like geniuses for signing him and moving on from Geno Smith, as he currently sports a stellar 109.2 passer rating. Facing a Washington defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in passing yards allowed should open plenty of favorable matchups for Cooper Kupp and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
At some point, you’d expect the Commanders offense to have a breakout performance to pull themselves out of this slump. But right now, I just don’t trust their defense to make enough plays to give that offense a real chance to win.
Prediction: 28-23 Seahawks
Monday Night Football: Cardinals @ Cowboys (ABC/ESPN, 7:15 PM)
Here’s our yearly reminder that the Dallas Cowboys get to be on primetime TV simply because they’re the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys have played seven games this year — and have allowed at least 30 points in five of them. Dak Prescott just couldn’t crack the Broncos defense, and when this Dallas offense stalls, they have no shot at winning week in and week out. The silver lining for the Cowboys is that Prescott should have his full array of weapons available against one of the league’s more pedestrian pass defenses.
After a promising 2-0 start, the Cardinals have now lost five straight — all by one score. Right now, they’re the NFL equivalent of a professional wrestler whose job is to make the other guy look good before inevitably taking the loss. They’re the enhancement talent of the league. Kyler Murray may be expected to return this week, but I have my doubts that he can match or exceed what Jacoby Brissett managed during his fill-in stretch.
This is another matchup between two teams I simply don’t trust to close out games — but in the end, someone has to win.
Prediction: 28-27 Cowboys
Overall Record: 72-48-1 (Last Week: 8-5)