Thursday Night Football: Jets @ Patriots (Prime, 7:15 PM)
Surprisingly enough, both of these teams come in with a bit of momentum. Even after the Jets held the mother of all fire sales at the trade deadline, they still managed to beat the Cleveland Browns. That win might’ve been ugly as sin, but it still counts — and it shows that the players haven’t completely given up on first-year head coach Aaron Glenn. The big issues for the Jets remain their run defense, which allowed nearly five yards per carry to a woeful Browns rushing attack, and their passing game, which mustered just 42 net yards through the air.
The Patriots proved something last week — to a lot of people, myself included — when they went on the road and took out the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I’ve always said good teams find ways to win against other good teams even when they’re not playing their “A-game,” and New England continues to do exactly that. Mike Vrabel has built a strong culture in Foxborough, and with the current state of the Titans, it’s becoming clear Tennessee picked the wrong side in the power struggle that led to his firing.
The X-factor here is TreyVeon Henderson, who gashed the Buccaneers last week for nearly 150 rushing yards, including the game-winning 69-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter. Against a leaky Jets rush defense, if the Patriots can establish the ground game early, they’ll dictate the pace and likely cruise.
Prediction: 27-14 Patriots
NFL Spain Game: Commanders vs. Dolphins (NFL Network, 8:30 AM)
I’ve got no clue what to make of the Miami Dolphins, and I’m not afraid to admit it. One week, they look completely disinterested — like they’d rather be on the beaches of Cancun — and the next, they dominate a contender. Last week was one of those good weeks, as Miami diced up Buffalo on the ground and made Josh Allen look mortal just seven days after he torched Kansas City. Which version of the Dolphins shows up this week? Your guess is as good as mine.
The Commanders, meanwhile, are exactly who I thought they were. The Lions pounded them 44-22 — and that was without Jayden Daniels under center. Washington was built to win shootouts, and without their dynamic leader, they’re incapable of keeping up when the opponent scores more than 24 points. The most optimistic timeline has Daniels returning around Week 14, but if the Commanders drop this one, the odds of him being shut down for the year rise significantly.
Prediction: 24-21 Dolphins
Sunday Noon Window
Panthers @ Falcons (FOX)
I just can’t do it anymore with the Panthers. I sold all my stock early, bought back in after a midseason surge — four wins in five games — and they immediately embarrassed themselves against the Saints. The lone silver lining: Carolina’s defense has given up fewer than 20 points in three of its last four games. The bad news? Their offense hasn’t cracked 17 in any of them.
As for Atlanta, the “quarterback away” narrative still rings painfully true. Kirk Cousins has turned into a pumpkin, and Michael Penix Jr. hasn’t shown anything that says “franchise quarterback” — sometimes not even “serviceable journeyman.” The Falcons will likely be back in the quarterback market this offseason, searching yet again for someone who can stabilize the offense.
Frustrations aside, Atlanta is still the better team here and should handle business.
Prediction: 17-13 Falcons
Buccaneers @ Bills (CBS)
The Buccaneers’ loss to New England wasn’t shocking — but Buffalo’s lifeless showing against Miami certainly was. Normally, after their annual beatdown of the Chiefs, the Bills ride that momentum into the following week. Not this time. They looked flat, and once again, the blueprint to beat them was simple: stop James Cook. Miami did exactly that, holding the Offensive Player of the Year candidate to just 53 rushing yards. It’s not time to panic in Buffalo, but with games against the Buccaneers, Texans, Steelers, Bengals, and Patriots coming up, another slump could push them out of AFC East contention.
Tampa Bay, meanwhile, continues to underachieve. Injuries at wide receiver have slowed what was once a dynamic offense, and Baker Mayfield has fallen from MVP front-runner to merely solid starter. The Bucs have played three legitimate Super Bowl contenders — the Eagles, Lions, and Patriots — and lost all three, giving up 27 points per game in those contests. Against everyone else, they’ve allowed just 20.5.
Something’s got to give. Either Buffalo finally beats a playoff-caliber opponent not named Kansas City, or Tampa Bay proves it can hang with the league’s elite.
Prediction: 27-23 Bills
Texans @ Titans (FOX)
I went from writing the Texans’ eulogy to watching my jaw hit the floor after their miraculous comeback against Jacksonville. Houston ripped off 26 unanswered points to win 36-29 — stunning everyone, including me. C.J. Stroud remains in concussion protocol, so his status is up in the air. The good news for Houston is that even with Davis Mills under center, they might only need 20 points to win this one.
As for Tennessee, surviving the bye week without injury or scandal might be the highlight of their season. The Titans are a mess — no vision, no young talent, no hope. Their offense can’t move the ball against bad defenses, let alone one as solid as Houston’s. To say my expectations are low would be putting it kindly.
Prediction: 20-7 Texans
Bears @ Vikings (FOX)
J.J. McCarthy got a cold dose of reality last week against Baltimore, completing under 50% of his passes and throwing more interceptions than touchdowns. Head coach Kevin O’Connell seems willing to let him take his lumps, which might be good for the long term — but for the short term, the Vikings have by far the worst quarterback situation in the NFC North. And this is not a league where you can build success around a quarterback who can’t carry his weight.
The Bears, on the other hand, won an uninspiring 24-20 game against the Giants. It’s hard to find a standout moment from that one besides Jaxson Dart’s concussion. Chicago feels a bit like New England — I’m skeptical, but the record says they’re good enough to deserve some respect. Their defense also deserves credit for bouncing back after allowing 42 points to Cincinnati the week prior.
If you’d told me after the 2024 draft that one rookie QB would already be giving himself and his alter ego nicknames, I would’ve guessed Caleb Williams — not J.J. McCarthy. But Williams has kept his head down and quietly put together a promising start, while McCarthy seems more interested in building a brand than winning games.
Prediction: 24-17 Bears
Packers @ Giants (FOX)
Jameis Winston will start for the Giants, which means — well — anything is possible. Jaxson Dart is out with a concussion, Brian Daboll is out of a job, and most of the current staff likely won’t make it past Week 18. The Giants are an injury-riddled mess, down to their third-string quarterback and an interim coach who’s never been a head coach at any level. Sounds like a recipe for disaster.
Speaking of disaster, that’s exactly what the Packers have been over the past two weeks, dropping back-to-back games to the Panthers and Eagles. Philadelphia exposed exactly why I’ve never fully trusted Green Bay: their offense disappears in big games. After averaging 27 points per game early, they’ve struggled to reach 14 lately — the kind of regression that caps their playoff ceiling. Fortunately for them, they’ve got a lifeless opponent in front of them this week.
Prediction: 26-17 Packers
Bengals @ Steelers (CBS)
If you need proof of how bad Cincinnati’s defense is, look no further than last week: Joe Flacco — yes, that Joe Flacco — hung 42 points on them, only for the Bears to go right down the field and win 47-42. The Bengals are an elite offense paired with a historically bad defense that will likely cost them a playoff berth for the third straight year.
Pittsburgh, meanwhile, got punked by the Chargers on Sunday night, 25-10, and the score wasn’t even that close. My issue with the Steelers mirrors my issue with the Packers: I trust them to beat bad teams, but never to show up against actual contenders. Luckily for them, Cincinnati is about as far from a contender as you can get. This is the perfect “get-right” divisional game for Mike Tomlin’s group as they try to hold off Baltimore atop the AFC North.
Prediction: 33-28 Steelers
Chargers @ Jaguars (CBS)
I’ve never felt more vindicated calling a team fraudulent than I do about the 2025 Jacksonville Jaguars. Losing to Houston’s backup quarterback is bad enough — but allowing 26 points in a single quarter? That’s a fireable offense. Liam Coen should be thankful he’s a first-year head coach, because if this were Year 3 or 4, he’d be joining Brian Daboll in the unemployment line. Even when the Jaguars win, the offense sputters; now, even scoring 29 points isn’t enough because the defense can’t stop anyone.
The Chargers might be the AFC’s version of the Packers — talented but unreliable. Still, they’re winning the games they’re supposed to. Justin Herbert is playing behind a patchwork offensive line and throwing to backups, yet still keeping the offense afloat. The defense isn’t elite, but it proved last week it can still dominate when focused, limiting Aaron Rodgers to 161 yards and intercepting him twice.
EverBank Stadium might be the only place with less home-field advantage than SoFi. Expect it to be eerily quiet once the Chargers drop the Jaguars to 5-5.
Prediction: 24-17 Chargers
Sunday Afternoon Window
Seahawks @ Rams (FOX)
If the Seattle Seahawks continue to fly under the radar, they might just be the most balanced team in the league. Sam Darnold is making Vikings fans yearn for the days of old, as he’s seamlessly stepped into and elevated what was a mediocre unit last year into one of the best in the NFL. Add to that a defense that continues to routinely hold opponents under 20 points, and you’ve got a bona fide title contender. Still, until they duplicate these performances against elite competition, there will remain valid questions about their legitimacy.
The Rams’ defense still hasn’t solved the Rubik’s Cube that is a Mac Jones–led 49ers offense—allowing 26 points and 319 passing yards—but their offense more than made up for it, hanging 42 in their Week 10 win. At this point, Matthew Stafford is the MVP of the league, and for a player many doubted would ever play at an elite level again after last year’s injury, the resurgence is well deserved. Still, that defense remains a concern, as it continues to struggle to get off the field against top-tier opponents.
Both teams have had dominant starts and look like the class of the NFC West. But only one will sit atop the division after this one, and for Round One, I’m giving the edge to Stafford and the Rams.
Prediction: 27-24 Rams
49ers @ Cardinals (FOX)
The Cardinals seem to have made an unofficially official decision at quarterback: they’re riding out the season with Jacoby Brissett and will likely trade Kyler Murray in the offseason. Just ignore that most of Brissett’s numbers against the Seahawks came after they were down 38–7, because that doesn’t fit the narrative the Cardinals are trying to sell themselves. In reality, Arizona is in desperate need of an overhaul—but with a coaching staff and front office that both know such a move would probably cost them their jobs, they’re trying to delay the inevitable.
On the opposite end of the organizational spectrum sits San Francisco. The 49ers may have lost convincingly to the Rams last week, but they’re still very much in the playoff race. Injuries have plagued them all year, but their coaching staff continues to adapt their game plan to the personnel on hand—a rare quality in the league. They’re not flawless, far from it, but they’re still a team you trust to handle opponents like the Cardinals.
Prediction: 24-21 49ers
Ravens @ Browns (CBS)
After all the injuries and early-season speculation about John Harbaugh’s job security, the Ravens now sit just one game under .500 and remain betting favorites to win the AFC North. It’s no surprise that the offense with Lamar Jackson looks vastly different than without him, but the real revelation has been the defense. After allowing 35.4 points per game through the first five weeks, Baltimore has tightened up to just 14.5 points per game over its last four. If this defense continues to rise to its preseason expectations, a Super Bowl push could be back on the table in Baltimore.
The Browns, meanwhile, continue to be the Browns. Unless Dillon Gabriel lights it up against this Ravens defense, we’ll probably see Shedeur Sanders under center next week. It’s not all on Gabriel—his defense’s collapse against the Jets didn’t help—but his inability to sustain drives has kept Cleveland from finding any rhythm.
And with the Cleveland Guardians’ recent betting scandal casting another shadow over the city, this weekend probably won’t offer much relief for local sports fans.
Prediction: 30-17 Ravens
Chiefs @ Broncos (CBS)
This matchup is all about perception versus reality.
Representing perception are the Kansas City Chiefs—still viewed by many as the superior team, despite being two games back in the division and getting thoroughly embarrassed by Buffalo last week. Why? Because they have Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid. Who cares if their running backs move like shopping carts with jammed wheels or if their defense couldn’t generate pressure against an NAIA team? They’ve got the best coach-quarterback combo in football.
Representing reality are the Denver Broncos—a team that’s been downright painful to watch offensively, scoring 21 or fewer points in six of ten games. And yet, their defense is so dominant that they sit at 8–2 and could virtually eliminate the Chiefs from AFC West contention with a win this week. They’re not pretty, but they’re effective—and that’s reality.
So which wins out: perception or reality? Normally, I’m a perceptive guy—but this time, I’m rolling with reality.
Prediction: 14-13 Broncos
Sunday Night Football: Lions @ Eagles (NBC, 7:20 PM)
This feels like a must-win game—at least mentally—for the Detroit Lions. They’ve proven time and again that they can steamroll the bottom-feeders, but they’ve yet to prove it against a truly elite opponent like the Eagles. Detroit thrives on being the bully, forcing you to play at their pace: start hot, then bleed you dry with a thousand power runs. In a lot of ways, they’re like the Eagles—just without the Super Bowl ring to validate the swagger.
The Eagles just win. It may not always be pretty, but it’s consistent. You might wonder why I don’t criticize Philly for winning ugly the same way I do Denver, and the answer’s simple: once you win a Super Bowl, you earn that benefit of the doubt. That, and I trust Jalen Hurts far more than Bo Nix. But when the playoffs arrive, the Eagles’ offense will need to find its rhythm if they want to stay ahead of teams like the Lions.
Like I said before—this is a mental must-win for Detroit, and I think they finally get that statement victory they’ve been chasing all season.
Prediction: 24-23 Lions
Monday Night Football: Cowboys @ Raiders (ABC/ESPN, 7:15 PM)
Week Three of the YouTube TV–ESPN/Disney dispute rolls on, and both sides remain further apart than the Cowboys and their fans yearly delusions of grandeur. I don’t think the Cowboys are bad—I just don’t think they’re good enough. Their bye week should’ve helped new acquisitions settle in, and if Dallas wants any shot at the playoffs, they need to get to 10 wins. With games still looming against the Chiefs, Chargers, Lions, Vikings, and Eagles, they can’t afford to drop one to the lowly Raiders.
As for Las Vegas—why ESPN put this team on Monday Night Football is anyone’s guess. Only the most hopelessly optimistic Raiders fan thought this group would finish better than 6–11. If Disney thinks people will watch Geno Smith and the Raiders’ offense flop around like dead fish for four quarters just to justify buying Hulu + Live TV, more power to them. In all seriousness, this team lacks vocal leadership—it’s a roster full of veterans simply waiting for the season to end.
Prediction: 30-20 Cowboys
Overall Record: 88-60-1 (Last Week 8-6)