Thursday Night Football: Cowboys @ Lions (Prime, 7:15 p.m.)

The Dallas Cowboys all but eliminated the Kansas City Chiefs from playoff contention on Thanksgiving, and now they have an opportunity to pick up a critical win against the Lions. Make no bones about it: Dallas is fully capable of winning out and making the playoffs, and having a win over Detroit would be a monumental tiebreaker for them. In a year where the lack of a truly dominant team has never been more prevalent, Dallas might just be the team getting hot at the right time.

I’m not sure if all of the Lions’ struggles can be traced back to former offensive coordinator Ben Johnson leaving for the Bears’ head coaching gig, but something about them feels off. The defense was always a bit of an issue, but their previously elite offense was able to hide some of those deficiencies. Now that the offense has looked mortal, the Lions have been unable to knock off high-level competition.

This is about as big of a Thursday night game as you can get at this point in the season, with the loser taking a major hit in the playoff race.

Prediction: 31–28 Cowboys

Sunday Noon Window

Seahawks @ Falcons (FOX)

The Seahawks avenged Sam Darnold’s shutout of the Minnesota Vikings by delivering a 26–0 shutout of their own last week. Despite the win, Darnold wasn’t the star, as the normally explosive Seattle passing game was held to 128 yards while he was sacked four times. It’s vital for the Seahawks to protect Darnold better, especially given how often he was hit last year. The good news: their defense remains elite, allowing just 18 points per game and giving up more than 20 only three times in nine games.

The Falcons’ woeful season continued with a loss to the Jets, as Atlanta still can’t buy any sort of consistency. It’s not that the Kirk Cousins-led offense was terrible — they just seem incapable of making winning plays. For what feels like five straight years, the Falcons have been a team that looks like an NFC South contender on paper but lacks the je ne sais quoi needed to take the next step.

Until the Falcons prove they can beat a team like Seattle, there’s no reason to pick against the Seahawks.

Prediction: 27–17 Seahawks

Bengals @ Bills (FOX)

The Bengals flat-out whooped the Ravens last week, keeping alive their unlikely — but still very real — playoff push. With Joe Burrow guiding the offense, no defensive coordinator wants to see Cincinnati on the schedule. The only question is whether the Bengals defense can hold up over these last five games and actually give Burrow a chance to win out.

The Bills walked into Pittsburgh with zero momentum and left looking like a rejuvenated football team, dominating the second half to win 26–7. That said, Josh Allen was far from MVP form, turning the ball over again while failing to reach even 130 passing yards. Thank goodness the Bills worked out a deal with James Cook, because without him this team might be below .500. The defense has been inconsistent, giving up about 22 points per game over their last four while allowing two opponents to hit 30 in that span.

When everything is clicking, the Bills are still elite. But “when” has been a big variable this year. If the Bills aren’t ready, the Bengals are more than capable of pulling the upset.

Prediction: 30–28 Bills

Titans @ Browns (FOX)

This is one of the lowest point totals I’ve seen in years at 33.5 — and that still might be optimistic.

Last week (in haiku form) I said to cool the hype on Shedeur Sanders, and we saw exactly why against the 49ers. With Sanders under center, the Browns averaged 25.7 yards per drive — and that includes a 90-yard touchdown drive in which nine of the 10 plays were runs. Outside of that drive, the Browns produced zero points, averaging just 17.75 yards per drive and only 12 yards per drive in the second half.

The Titans, meanwhile, turned back into a pumpkin against the Jaguars, scoring only three points in a 25–3 loss as they remain winless at home. The lack of skill position talent and offensive line stability makes it nearly impossible to evaluate Cam Ward, but this has undeniably been a rookie year to forget for the No. 1 overall pick.

As little faith as I have in the Cult of Shedeur, I have even less in the pit of despair that is the Tennessee Titans.

Prediction: 13–10 Browns

Commanders @ Vikings (FOX)

The Minnesota Vikings completely botched their quarterback plan this season. They put all their eggs in the J.J. McCarthy basket, and he’s either been ineffective or injured. Carson Wentz produced mixed results, to put it kindly, and undrafted rookie Max Brosmer was essentially sent out to die last week against an elite Seattle defense. With McCarthy back under center, he has to start producing something that keeps both his GM and head coach in his corner, since both are likely on the hot seat.

The Commanders looked like they might finally end Denver’s win streak, but an uninspired two-point conversion was easily swatted down, all but sealing their playoff fate. Despite the loss, the offense under Marcus Mariota finally showed some life — more than can be said about their opponents’ offense lately.

This game feels more fitting for an old episode of NFL Follies than a national broadcast. Whichever team refuses to beat itself will win.

Prediction: 20–17 Commanders

Dolphins @ Jets (CBS)

Don’t look now, but the Miami Dolphins are riding a three-game win streak and could easily make it four this week. I’ve said I’m done trying to understand the Dolphins, and since then my picks have gotten more accurate. Their defense has been red hot, holding each of their last three opponents under 18 points. The offense hasn’t been great, but when you only need 20 a night, things tend to fall into place.

The Jets, after starting 0–7, have won three of their last five, including a 27–24 victory over the Falcons. Tyrod Taylor continues to secure his future as a serviceable journeyman backup. Credit to Aaron Glenn — he wasn’t afraid to bench Justin Fields despite the absurd contract, and it may have saved him the locker room. I still don’t think highly of the Jets, but I may be warming up to their first-year head coach.

The Dolphins are essentially in must-win mode, and as much as I may not trust them, they are the better team.

Prediction: 23–17 Dolphins

Saints @ Buccaneers (CBS)

The Saints are stuck evaluating a quarterback they very clearly reached for in the draft, forced to decide whether they need to spend yet another high pick on the most important position. Tyler Shough hasn’t been terrible, but it’s clear he wasn’t ready to see the field this year. The New Orleans defense hasn’t been awful over the last three weeks, but they won’t win another game unless the offense improves from rudimentary to merely mediocre.

The Buccaneers snapped their three-game losing streak with a close win over the Cardinals. Tampa Bay may be the team most hampered by injuries this year, which has prevented them from looking like the Super Bowl contender many thought they could be. Still, even with their injury concerns, they should be more than capable of handling the Saints.

Prediction: 24–17 Buccaneers

Colts @ Jaguars (CBS)

Daniel Jones went out last week and gutted it out on a fractured leg, trying to will the Colts back onto the winning path — to no avail. He didn’t play poorly, but the Colts offense isn’t the efficient machine it was earlier in the year. Some of that is due to facing a strong Texans defense, but after averaging more than 33 points per game in their first nine outings, they’ve now been held to 20 or fewer in three of their last four.

The Jaguars have been nearly as inconsistent as the Dolphins, but they’ve scraped out a couple more wins and sit at 7–5. Trevor Lawrence finally produced a halfway respectable performance after being carried harder than Blake Bortles ever was in Jacksonville. If he can string together solid outings, the Jaguars have a legitimate shot to steal the division.

With Jones playing on a fractured leg and the offense sputtering, the Colts are in desperation mode. A Jacksonville win would give them a huge step toward securing the AFC South after being an afterthought in the race only a few weeks ago.

Prediction: 23–20 Jaguars

Steelers @ Ravens (CBS)

Does anybody actually want to win the AFC North? Seriously. Based on how the Ravens and Steelers simultaneously laid their biggest eggs of the season last week, it sure doesn’t look like it.

All the momentum from Baltimore’s five-game win streak evaporated, as the Bengals dominated every phase and Lamar Jackson turned it over five times against one of the leakiest defenses in football. What was supposed to be a shootout turned into a bigger uncontested beatdown than the Texas Rangers gave Bonnie and Clyde.

The Steelers, meanwhile, swing wildly from looking like a playoff headache one week to making you question why you like football the next. Aaron Rodgers looked cooked after rushing back from a wrist injury, and the offense suffered. More alarming: the Steelers didn’t sack Josh Allen once after he was sacked eight times the week prior.

Will this game be enjoyable? Probably not. Will it be hotly contested? Who knows. But at noon Sunday, a football game will definitely be played.

Prediction: 23–17 Steelers

Sunday Afternoon Window

Broncos @ Raiders (CBS)

The Broncos continue to look beatable, yet they continue to win, holding on last week against the short-handed Commanders. Bo Nix looked solid, more like last year’s version than someone riding in his defense’s backpack. But it’s concerning that the defense gave up 26 points to an offense averaging 15.6 points per game over its previous five.

The Raiders remain the league’s laughingstock — their record is starting to resemble someone playing slots on the Vegas Strip. The defense keeps allowing a boatload of points, and Geno Smith added to his league-leading interception total. The entire organization is leaking toxicity, with the front office and coaching staff more focused on assigning blame than fixing anything.

One day, the Broncos will lose again. But Sunday will not be that day.

Prediction: 24–10 Broncos

Bears @ Packers (FOX)

Even though it ended as a one-score game, the Packers might’ve been the most impressive team on Thanksgiving. Jordan Love posted a career day with four touchdowns and no interceptions, while the defense sacked Jared Goff three times. After their brief stumble, they now find themselves looking up at the Bears — a situation that’s felt unnatural since the Aaron Rodgers era.

The Bears’ win against Philadelphia wasn’t pretty, but it was the kind of performance that gives a team legitimacy. Walter Payton had to be smiling watching both De’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai run for more than 120 yards, while the defense kept Jalen Hurts and the Eagles stuck in neutral all night.

For Chicago to truly take the next step, they have to beat the Packers in a game with real stakes. A win gives them a stranglehold on the division. A loss pops the balloon.

Prediction: 27–24 Packers

Rams @ Cardinals (FOX)

The Rams became the latest victim of the complete randomness that is the Carolina Panthers, who once again decided to show up against a team nobody thought they could beat. For the first time all year, Matthew Stafford looked mortal, throwing two interceptions while the defense allowed more than 30 points to a usually monotonous Carolina offense. If we’ve learned anything this season, it’s that anyone can be beaten — and weirdly, this kind of loss might be good for a Rams team that’s had it almost too easy lately.

The Cardinals kept their “jobber to the stars” title intact with a close loss to Tampa Bay, dropping to 3–9. Arizona should be a popular seller this offseason, as they’ve been flirting with a rebuild for years but have had just enough success to delay it. Whether the current staff sticks around is anyone’s guess.

Prediction: 27–20 Rams

Sunday Night Football: Texans @ Chiefs (NBC, 7:20 p.m.)

The Chiefs just lost the most-watched regular-season game in NFL history on Thanksgiving, as 57.2 million people got to see how far the mighty have fallen. Kansas City is mediocre to horrible at everything except quarterback — and yes, that includes coaching. When your season is on the line and you need a stop, blitzing your best corner while leaving your worst defensive back on one of the best receivers in football is not the galaxy-brain decision they think it is. CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens exposed what used to be a great defense.

To make matters worse, the Chiefs will be without at least two starting offensive linemen against one of the league’s best pass rushes.

The Texans may not play the prettiest football, but they’re winning — and that’s all that matters. With Daniel Jones’ injury news coming out, Houston has to feel like it has a real shot at winning the division if it can keep this momentum going. With C.J. Stroud back, it’s up to him to guide them through this stretch.

The Chiefs dynasty ends Sunday night — and it won’t be close.

Prediction: 24–7 Texans

Monday Night Football: Eagles @ Chargers (ABC/ESPN, 7:15 p.m.)

The next five games are critical for the Chargers. They’ve rebuilt momentum against weaker opponents, but now face a gantlet of potential potholes to close the year. The first is the Philadelphia Eagles, who can’t seem to decide whether they want to be a good football team. Right now, they’re the NFL’s premier glass cannon — capable of dealing massive damage but collapsing at the slightest breeze of adversity.

Justin Herbert has held this Chargers season together by a thread, the lone constant in a sea of injuries, inconsistency and hot-and-cold stretches. The key will be avoiding the self-inflicted mistakes that the Eagles have thrived on this year and forcing Philadelphia to string together real drives.

This should be a lower-scoring matchup with both teams trying to play clean football while securing a winning season.

Prediction: 21–17 Eagles

 

Overall Record: 118-75-1 (Last Week 9-7)