Thursday Night Football: Falcons @ Buccaneers (Prime, 7:15 p.m.)
This matchup features two of the most disappointing teams in the league this year. The Falcons have been trying to find a replacement for Matt Ryan ever since they unceremoniously dumped him for a spot on the endless quarterback carousel. It’s clear that Kirk Cousins is running on empty, and Michael Penix Jr. didn’t exactly inspire confidence for the future. But the biggest disappointment has been the defense, which has allowed a staggering 27 points per game over its last five contests.
The Buccaneers, meanwhile, feel like a team hit by a combination of the injury bug and regression. There’s no question Tampa Bay has been holding this ship together with duct tape since about Week 3, but after last week’s loss to the Saints, the dam may have finally burst.
There’s nothing the league likes more than firing defensive-minded head coaches after a disappointing season, and right now both coaches might be coaching for their jobs.
Prediction: 23–20 Buccaneers
Sunday Noon Window
Browns @ Bears (FOX)
The Bears finally saw their five-game win streak snapped by the team that has tormented them since the days of Brett Favre, and now they’re staring up at the cheeseheads in the division. That said, this season has been a revelation for Chicago, as they’ve finally injected some excitement back into the franchise. What they must do now is avoid the pitfalls of a potential trap game—coming off a loss to the Packers with the rematch looming in Week 16.
What makes the Shedeur Sanders discourse so tiring is that two things can seemingly never be true at once. Yes, Sanders played a strong game against the Titans, and Kevin Stefanski was a fool for pulling him when they needed a two-point conversion to tie it. But you’ll never hear the media acknowledge that in the second half, the Browns’ first seven drives resulted in five punts, one interception and a fumble, totaling just 77 yards.
It’s the same problem he had in college: spurts of brilliance marred by severe droughts of ineffectiveness. Until that changes, he isn’t the long-term answer at quarterback.
Prediction: 27–17 Bears
Ravens @ Bengals (CBS)
Last week, the Bengals’ defense imploded yet again, allowing 21 fourth-quarter points to the Bills in a 39–34 loss. Cincinnati is the definition of a glass cannon—capable of overwhelming anyone with its offensive firepower, yet shattering into a thousand pieces the moment any pressure is applied to its defense. With their playoff hopes all but dashed, the Bengals’ best remaining role is spoiler.
The Ravens, after clawing their way above .500, have now dropped back-to-back divisional games and are back below the threshold. In a year where the traditional AFC powers are underperforming, Baltimore’s struggles are perhaps the least surprising—unlike the Chiefs, there are no injury woes to blame. One more loss would essentially end their playoff chances, meaning if the real Lamar Jackson is still out there, now is the time for him to step up.
Prediction: 30–27 Ravens
Bills @ Patriots (CBS)
With last week’s dramatics against the Bengals keeping their AFC East hopes alive, this game has far more at stake than anyone imagined back in September. Sometimes all a sleeping giant needs is a new voice, and that’s exactly what the Patriots found in Mike Vrabel. While teams like the Ravens and Chiefs have grown stale due to their unwillingness to change, New England has ascended because they embraced change—and nailed their quarterback pick in the process.
Even if the Bills win, they’ll need a lot of help to steal the division. Josh Allen finally appears to be rounding back into form, and with the Ravens, Bengals and Chiefs all but eliminated, this is the perfect time for him to get hot.
New England has tiptoed through danger throughout this winning streak, and while I still think they’ll take the division, the Bills will make this a race to the finish.
Prediction: 33–30 Bills
Commanders @ Giants (FOX)
The only thing the Commanders are consistent at is being inconsistent. Coming off an unexpectedly solid performance against the league’s top defense, you’d think they’d have no trouble with the unpredictable Vikings. Instead, they were shut out. With Jayden Daniels now shut down for the season, Washington is once again turning to Marcus Mariota.
Surprisingly, the Giants bring more intrigue to this matchup as rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart returns from his concussion. When two bad teams meet this late in the season, the only thing at stake is draft position, so picking a winner comes down to motivation. The Giants seem like the team with more to prove, while Washington just wants this miserable season over with.
Prediction: 20–13 Giants
Raiders @ Eagles (FOX)
The Eagles seem stuck in the same funk that lingered over them after their previous Super Bowl run. The spark that carried them last year has vanished. Jalen Hurts is a fine player, but it’s clear he can’t be the focal point of the offense—his five-turnover performance against the Chargers proved that. Last year they didn’t care how their wins looked; now they’re like Rocky in Rocky III: obsessed with image and too civilized to fight with the edge that defined them.
Fortunately for Philadelphia, they play the Raiders—the NFL’s permanent clown car. With Philip Rivers getting signed out of retirement by the Colts, you wonder if Tom Brady might climb down from the owner’s box to save his old franchise from Kenny Pickett piloting it further into the earth.
If Philly loses this game, then we can officially hit the panic button.
Prediction: 26–13 Eagles
Jets @ Jaguars (CBS)
The Jaguars are benefitting from being in the right place at the right time. With the Colts down to their fourth quarterback, the AFC South is theirs to lose. The only real threat to Jacksonville… is Jacksonville. Trevor Lawrence needs to continue being a competent game manager who can make enough plays in the clutch.
The Jets, meanwhile, are still the Jets—getting blown out by the Jekyll-and-Hyde Dolphins and operating as a team that essentially punted on the season after conducting a midyear fire sale. Aaron Glenn has kept the locker room behind him, but he badly needs a signature win.
Prediction: 24–14 Jaguars
Cardinals @ Texans (FOX)
After the Texans effectively ended the Chiefs’ dynasty on Sunday, they can now focus on completing their unlikely playoff push. Once the offense found its stride, Houston became exactly what many expected—a tough, gritty team that wins ugly but consistently.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, have completely given up, as their blowout loss to the Rams demonstrated. Everyone on the coaching staff and in the front office knows they’re gone, and every veteran with a movable contract is likely out as well. The result is a roster simply going through the motions.
I’d love to see the Texans deliver a statement win here, but playing down to their competition has been their style.
Prediction: 21–10 Texans
Chargers @ Chiefs (CBS)
The Chargers may have won ugly against the Eagles, but at least they won. They have a banged-up offensive line and an inconsistent offense, but unlike their opponent, they don’t make backbreaking mistakes weekly. Justin Herbert may never win an MVP with Jim Harbaugh, but the Chargers are undeniably better with structure.
The Chiefs, meanwhile, have gone from model franchise to circus act, going 1–4 over their last five. That’s what happens when you spend an offseason patting yourself on the back for a year in which you were humiliated on national TV, then elect to change nothing and get older and slower. Hubris has destroyed many dynasties—sporting and otherwise—and Kansas City’s front office, coaching staff and core players showed plenty of it.
If the Texans ended the dynasty last week, the Chargers have a chance to salt the earth.
Prediction: 27–10 Chargers
Sunday Afternoon Window
Packers @ Broncos (CBS)
I don’t think the Broncos are an especially good team, but they are 11–2 and battling the Patriots for the AFC’s No. 1 seed. This season has been giving off some eerie 2015 vibes—taking advantage of a Chiefs collapse while fielding an elite defense and an offense that gets the job done.
After a midseason lull, the Packers have righted the ship and once again look like one of the NFC’s top two teams. Their formula—establishing control early through Jordan Love, then suffocating opponents with the run game and defense—has worked to perfection. If they repeat it here, another statement win will bolster their championship credentials.
Prediction: 21–20 Packers
Lions @ Rams (FOX)
Sometimes an all-time great player simply never ends up the best at his position during his career, which can overshadow his legacy. Fortunately for Matthew Stafford, he’s finally on track to receive the recognition he deserves as he closes in on his first MVP award. The Rams have been as close to foolproof as any team in this chaotic season.
The Lions showed fight last week against Dallas, putting up 44 points behind a lethal ground game. But now they must do something they haven’t done all year: beat an elite team. Their résumé is filled with solid wins, but lacks the one defining victory that marks them as true contenders.
Whenever Stafford faces his old team it’s must-watch television—and this one feels like it could be a legacy game.
Prediction: 34–27 Rams
Panthers @ Saints (FOX)
Remember how I said the Rams were almost foolproof? The only reason they aren’t completely foolproof is because the Panthers shocked them a couple weeks ago. Carolina remains the league’s biggest enigma—one week resembling a playoff sleeper, the next looking like a top-10 draft team. If they can string together a few more wins, sneaking into the postseason isn’t impossible.
The Saints somehow beat the Buccaneers last week despite Tyler Shough’s shaky showing. They entered this season knowing it would be a rebuild, and if they’ve learned anything, it’s that they must take another swing at quarterback next April. They aren’t a QB away, but they also can’t keep trotting out bottom-five talent at the position.
Prediction: 24–17 Panthers
Titans @ 49ers (FOX)
It wasn’t that I thought the Titans were doomed to go 1–16—I just didn’t know when or where the second win would come. Despite nearly blowing it in the fourth quarter, they finally hung on to beat the Browns. Tony Pollard looked like his old self, and Cam Ward strung together enough drives to secure his second career win. This season has been far from stellar for the No. 1 pick, but his maturity and refusal to throw anyone under the bus has been impressive.
The 49ers’ win over the Browns was more impressive, as expected from the better team. The only concern is Brock Purdy, who hasn’t played well since returning from injury. Still, I believe in San Francisco’s coaching staff, and last week’s bye may have been exactly what they needed.
If the 49ers want a real shot at catching the Rams for the NFC West, they must beat bottom feeders like Tennessee.
Prediction: 28–10 49ers
Colts @ Seahawks (CBS)
Just weeks ago, this was shaping up to be a marquee matchup between two elite teams. Now, it’s a great team against a team devastated by the one injury they couldn’t afford. Say what you will about Daniel Jones, but until he aggravated his injury against the Chiefs, he had the Colts positioned to contend for the AFC’s top seed. Now, with Jones on IR, the Colts signing Philip Rivers as an emergency option, and rookie sixth-rounder Riley Leonard set to start, the situation looks bleak.
Sam Darnold has found the perfect balance between gunslinger and game manager. He’ll likely give you one turnover per week—but also three touchdowns. Paired with a top-three defense, Seattle looks like a legitimate Super Bowl threat.
With the Rams looming next week, this has trap-game potential. But I don’t think a sixth-round rookie—or a fresh-off-the-couch Rivers—can topple Seattle.
Prediction: 27–10 Seahawks
Sunday Night Football: Cowboys @ Vikings (NBC, 7:20 p.m.)
J.J. McCarthy put together perhaps the best game of his career last week against Washington, avoiding turnovers and throwing three touchdowns. That’s the type of performance that can inspire confidence in a franchise starving for it. Now the question is whether he can replicate it against Dallas’ leaky defense.
After beating the Chiefs on Thanksgiving to extend the winning streak to three, it looked like the Cowboys had some real momentum. Instead, their defense crumbled against the Lions, and they’ve fallen back into the NFC playoff morass. It’s clear Dallas needs to invest heavily in the defense this offseason.
If you combined Minnesota’s defense with Dallas’ offense, you’d have one of the league’s best teams. But as things stand, the imbalance is what will keep both out of the postseason.
Prediction: 27–23 Cowboys
Monday Night Football: Dolphins @ Steelers (ABC/ESPN, 7:15 p.m.)
If not for a wretched start, the Dolphins could be a playoff team—they’ve now won five of their last six after a 1–6 opening. The biggest criticism of Mike McDaniel has always been whether he can motivate his team and rally them during adversity. This late-season surge might just buy him one more year if Miami can finish above .500.
With Baltimore spiraling again, the Steelers have been handed a lifeline after seemingly coughing up the AFC North weeks ago. Mike Tomlin’s never had a losing season, and while the stat is overstated, getting this roster to nine or ten wins might be enough to sneak in.
With temperatures expected in the teens, the spotlight will be on Tua Tagovailoa and whether he can shed the “warm-weather quarterback” label. Miami’s playoff path is unlikely—but a win keeps it alive.
Prediction: 23–16 Steelers
Overall Record: 127-80-1 (Last Week 9-5)